I received an email from Justin Kirby asking me to comment on the ten predictions that he made about the future of connected marketing back in 2005. First, amazing predictions; secondly, I think I wrote a book of my own. Justin’s predictions and my comments for your consideration below…
10 predictions for the future of connected marketing (2005):
1. Connected marketing will become more strategic, with the focus shifting from promotion (creating remarkable campaigns) to innovation (creating remarkable products).
Justin, you’re still so far ahead of the market. Although the early-adopters are for sure becoming more strategic, I would say that lots of people still have yet to engage the blogosphere in ways that are any more innovative than simple Internet advertising. The problem is in the metrics. Clients don’t generally understand that WOM and buzz marketing is a) marketing and not advertising and b) in many ways, a little bit of intelligence and PR as well. So, don’t forget that the market still isn’t there yet. The true power of online brand promotion, messaging, seeing, follow-up, and blogger engagement still is very poorly understood.
2. ROI metrics will be mandatory for viral, buzz and word of mouth campaigns. ‘Advocacy rates’ and ‘sales uplift’ will become important parts of ROI metrics, displacing traditional measures such as campaign reach.
Yes! Like I just said before… I would say that lots of people still have yet to engage the blogosphere in ways that are any more innovative than simple Internet advertising. The problem is in the metrics. Clients don’t generally understand that WOM and buzz marketing is a) marketing and not advertising and b) in many ways, a little bit of intelligence and PR as well. So, don’t forget that the market still isn’t there yet. The true power of online brand promotion, messaging, seeing, follow-up, and blogger engagement still is very poorly understood.
And so expectations are still based on advertising. Advertising is almost completely ephemeral. Lots of hits and traffic when the campaign is running, but the moment the ad campaign ends, the traffic dries up.
Online buzz marketing sticks. It is highly influential with regards to search, Google PageRank, findability, and engaging more fully with the global conversation — the “naked conversations” — into the Internet blogosphere — the “passion chamber.”
So, what kind of metrics are associated with that? How do I as a professional online brand promoter and online advocate prove to the client that my mad ninja skills, my understanding of online conversation, the nature of virtual community and social network, and all of the associated protocol, offer much more ROI than general and copious traffic? I still have not figured out the magic incantation.
3. Word of mouth tracking will become a key metric in brand tracking market research.
That is for sure. That is the Holy Grail. I know that TruCast by Visible Technologies has unlocked the door, but then again, I am a sales rep for them. I know BuzzLogic is on its way and several others, too. TruCast might just have it all figured out. I think that advertisers on Technorati get an amazing media report and advertising intelligence like you wouldn’t believe.
4. Buzz, viral and word of mouth marketing will be merged into the wider marketing mix, with online viral marketing adopted and integrated within advertising, word of mouth within promotions and buzz within PR.
I think that it is very important not to assume that the same people who can do advertising, marketing, and PR are the same people who CAN — or have the cred — to engage online and do brand ambassadorship and really interact with the community. Edelman has made a massive mess of things because they treat the blogosphere like some sort of spam list. Buzz is all about engagement, about buy-in, about cred, and about “belonging.”
And so I don’t recommend “adding” online WOM and Buzz marketing into the mix UNLESS there is a real attempt to either create another practice peopled with true experts in the field OR doing what Edelman Public Affairs did with mixed success, which is to day to create a freestanding special ops team, the Online Advocacy team in Edelman Public Affairs’ case, and give them VETO power on the dumb old media schemes that the rest of the firm comes up with — or the creativity to be able to “convert” the old media plan to a new media plan that will actually take purchase and effect change and potentially go pandemic, which is the goal of buzz marketing in the first place.
5. Managing and avoiding negative word of mouth, online and offline, will be an increasingly important area in connected marketing.
Yes. And blowback looks completely different — and works differently — online and when done virally that it does in the “real world” — online, things can go dormant and easily pop back up again. It is like waging a war on a forest fire. Sometimes the ground catches fire and one needs to just let the first burn itself out over time.
And here is what I say about this:
“Blog Messaging and Counter-Messaging
Blog search engines such as Technorati, Feedster, and BlogPulse only care about the last word. If you can reply to a negative, hurtful brand hit, then you can dominate the conversation and win the debate in most cases.
Google cares about everything, but the latest word isn’t always indexed yet. In the world of Google, the better indexed site always wins. Maximize your knowledge about SEO and Google Sitemaps if you want to compete here.
You can’t control online conversation unless you participate. To quote Sernovitz, “you’ll never be able to control the blogosphere conversation. Don’t even try. You’ll never be able to manage your blog coverage like you manage the press. Don’t even try. But what you can do is participate, earn respect, and tell your story. Jump in, join the conversation, and be a part of it.” The only way to get indexed by Google or to show up on Technorati, Feedster, and BlogPulse is to be an online opinion leader who has a site that has made it out of Technorati, Feedster, BlogPulse, Yahoo!, MSN, and Google’s sandbox, and has a SEO and a Blog Search Engine strategy.
You have to initiate membership, become part of the conversation, build street cred, have an SEO and blog strategy, and become a respected online opinion leader before something goes awry. It is important that you begin establishing yourself as soon as you begin building your company. Visibility and influence online takes time, so it’s best to start building early, so that when your product or service is ready for launch, you won’t have to wait another six months to become visible.”
And at the end of that day, just coming out and saying that you messed up is the best bet. The better bet is to invest in online communities and your online reputation way before anything ever goes wrong.
And any time someone tries to argue their point as opposed to just tastefully and honestly throwing themselves at the mercy of the court is the moment when you start wrestling with the tar baby…
Never make a comment on someone else’s blog unless you’re willing to solve the problem or to say you’re sorry.
I give away all of my tricks here:
And here:
http://www.abrahamharrison.com/our-insights
Ha!
6. Online branded entertainment (advertainment, advergaming, alternate reality games) will be used more as key brand touch-points for entertainment brands.
Yes. But not as a bullshit dog and pony show. It needs to be meaningful. If you don’t have buy in from the masters of each of these universes, you’re merely spamming unless you really have a most excellent thing: an exclusive or a powerful gift… here’s my words from somewhere else:
http://www.abrahamharrison.com/our-insights/come-bearing-gifts
“Always Bring Something to the Party
Why should the online conversation change because of you? Why should online communities care about what you have to offer? Much the same way that before you attend a party, you should purchase a bottle of wine to present as a gift to the host, especially if you heard about the party from your friend and the host doesn’t know you. In that case, maybe a nice bottle of scotch might be more appropriate. All online communities are real families, real parties, and real communities. People know each other. If you’re going to be showing up uninvited, you had better be charming, friendly, cool – and bearing gifts.”
So, yes. But when it comes to online engagement, there is a lot of difference between the kind of block party that the neighborhood or township sponsors for themselves and the fake gatherings that are manufactured for the visiting dignitary. Nobody every likes having to show up for a false and inauthentic gathering in order to show the president, the mayor, or the governor what good little citizens you are — in fact the blowback of that sort of gathering done badly can result in quite the opposite effect: instead of the celebrity of politician actually garnering votes or support, a gathering like that without the full buy in of the community can result in a counter-campaign that can — through the power of numbers and the passion of the passion chamber and the Internet — result in a swift and rude ousting.
In this illustration, inauthenticity and lack of true engagement — and a missing gift or a wrong gift or an inappropriate gift — can easily result in the worst possible scenario imaginable.
The online buzz marketing equivalent of Dukakis in the tank with a funny helmet.
Let me use video game engagement as an example. In order to engage a video game blogosphere or a video game community, I had better either be able to rap about what’s going on in the gamer world OR I had better be giving away games and Xboxes. Not selling to the main influencers but gifting these people. What Edelman did with Microsoft in engaging bloggers by sending them Vista-optimized laptops and PCs was brilliant. The perfect way to do things in this space. Where they came up short was in their transparency (or lack thereof). Their strategy was sound but they handled it as though they were doing something sneaky — like they were being thieves in the night.
Marketing, PR, and advertising really needs to leave this behind. This feeling like they’re getting away with something. That they’re delivering an awful-tasting medicine with a spoon full of sugar.
More traditional and old-fashioned methods of promotion seem to be alive and well. Where the consumer and the producer and both in on the joke. As I wrote here about the Purina One campaign:
http://www.chrisabraham.com/2006/04/purina_one_is_r.html
“Purina ONE is Role Model for Word-Of-Mouth Marketing
I listen to both the Glen Beck Program and Jack Diamond Morning Show and one thing they both have in common is that both Jack and Glen spontaneously wax poetic about their dogs.
Then, after a while of spinning a warm, charming, yarn, they reveal that it wasn’t until Purina One that their really stopped shedding, started acting like a puppy again, started having a glow, and began to have clear and shiny doggie eyes!
It is such a fantastic testimony by each men and I love listening to each of the respective emotional break in their respective radio announcer’s voice when they offer this heart felt Purina One testimonial. And then, we find out that we don’t have to take their word for it, we can call 888-606-BARK for a free 6.5 pound bag of Purina One Natural Blends dog food.
Do I feel betrayed? Used? No! I love it.
There is a sweet old world charm as though I were suddenly thrust into the Jack Benny Program. There is a lightness of being in their respective stories that don’t require me to care about the advertising or care about the salesmanship, it is the fact that these men are really likeable and we trust them and listen to them and hey, you have to pay the bills and we would rather enjoy their charm and warmth (and they do own dogs, after all — it isn’t a lie!) than the awful commercial breaks.
We hate these commercial breaks. We would rather our sweet DJ, our sweet host, hock the free 6.5 pound bag of Purina One Natural Blends dog food than leave it to someone we don’t know.
I would love to know who is handling the campaign but if you are within the sound of my blog, call me and offer me a job. I will take it!”
See. Really, these days with all the fisking and all of the Internet Forensics techniques available, http://www.cabraham.com/ideas/internet-forensics , there is little or no way to “get away with” anything.
Why is there so much “self loathing,” deceit, NLP, and deep psychology going into these campaigns… people are tired of being tricked into a first kiss… they really would be so happy and surprised if PR, marketing, and advertising would stop trying to get them drunk and take advantage and be such the opportunist. What they want is dinner, some chocolate, flowers, and then a brave lean in and an honest to goodness first kiss!
PR, Advertising, and Marketing: you need to be a man!
7. Techniques developed in connected marketing initiatives will be adopted for change management and internal communication.
Lots of PR firms are realizing that hearts and minds campaigns are very powerful when it comes to marketing and engaging externally, but at the end of the day, too many firms forget the war at home. Teaching companies to stop blaming their employees (blaming the victim) for unhappiness at work (that is probably not the employee’s fault) will become more and more essential as more and more firms fight for fewer and fewer good employees. The moment the balance of power tips more to the employee’s side, the better companies will have to become at constantly winning buy-in, meeting the needs, and seducing not just prospective hires but also renewing the vows you have with your current staff. Especially in the age of the blog where one severely pissed employee can thoroughly ruin your company’s reputation online for at least the next six months, especially if you’re looking for investors or are interested in being acquired.
8. Techniques developed in viral, buzz and word of mouth will be increasingly adopted in CRM programs as both retention and acquisition (turning buyers into advocates) tools.
Yes! TruCast by Visible Technologies is the perfect example. More and more, private equity firms and hedge funds are making a lot of their decision based not only on the books and on numbers but also on brand reputation… and the best mirror of that general good faith — the pulse, if you will — is the market that is conversation, with a tip of the hat to the Cluetrain Manifesto.
9. Cell phones will develop rapidly as an important medium for spreading connected marketing promotions, such as mobile invitations, SMS barcode discounts, etc.
Yes. And it doesn’t look the way you foresaw it, either. The experience has become very rich, with Google Maps and GPS tracking and ubiquitous camera phones and better access to streaming video. All of my friends text message now. Last year, I was the only one of many of them. I would text and they would either call me to talk or they would call me to tell me that that SMS cost them 50-cents.
10. Marketers will eventually be able to locate influencers by zip/post code, by which point they will be all chasing the same chosen few… Prepare for another paradigm shift in marketing?
No. Place, space, and zip code is backwards-ass. People, as they find their true BoF (birds of a feather) will be less connected to nation state or zip code. These “zips” will actually be virtual.
http://www.cabraham.com/ideas/internet-is-huge
“The Internet is Vastly Hugely Mind-Bogglingly Big
To paraphrase The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, “You may think it’s a long way down the road to the chemist, but that’s just peanuts to the Internet.”
Learning and researching fast, with connections and conversations with the people on the inside, that is the way to understand the part of the internet that is relevant to your work today. We get that knowledge to you – from the brilliant people who are growing the internet, to your brilliant people who will make it work for you.
Some people call it business intelligence. We call it the give and take of real relationships.”
And:
http://www.cabraham.com/ideas/virtual-online-communities
“Online Communities are Not Virtual
Do you think that people who play Second Life, World of Warcraft, Xbox Live, MMOGs, and MMORPGs are freaks? Do you consider message boards, forums, virtual realities, and virtual communities to be a waste of time, populated by losers?
If so, then you need to leave online advocacy, new media marketing, online brand promotion, online word of mouth marketing, online outreach, blogger relations, and brand ambassadorship to someone who has lived, loved, and connected to people in real ways online. And continues to do so. Abraham PR respects online community; Abraham PR respects the online life.
There is a general misunderstanding that online virtual communities are escapist. Many of our clients believe that Second Life (SL), World of Warcraft (WoW), and even Role Playing Games (RPGs) are places wherein geeks, freaks, losers, and loners go to escape their desperate, pathetic, lives. On the contrary!
So-called virtual communities are entirely real and populated with real people with real hopes and real passions. The connections, tribes, relationships, and families that people make online are long-term, real, and intense.
In much the same way that the smart kid may not find people who understand (or even like) him in high school, only to find people just like him — who really “get him” — upon arriving at College; the members of virtual online communities often look for and find like-minded people online.
Online, you can find a large population of like-minded birds-of-a-feather no matter how niche your interest, no matter how counter-culture your fetish.
The Internet can be a safe place for people to explore themselves. The Internet can allow access to people who are shy, easily intimidated, overwhelmed, or are just “trying out” different personalities, experiences, relationships, and roles before committing.
The Internet allows its denizens to “try before you buy.”
That said, they are real people. Their connections online are real. Their roles — even fantastic or bizarre — are true and impenetrable and must be respected.
People are going online to discover people who are exactly like them, called birds of a feather, rather than merely suffering those friends and family who may no longer be a lifestyle choice but a life obligation. People are not escaping, they’re exploring, they’re mapping, and they’re defining. Most of them end up truly blooming in this online world.
Do not engage online if you are unable to respect the full import and depth of culture, experience, and relationship that already exists — and is forever becoming deeper and more formalized.
If you do not learn to love, respect, appreciate virtual online communities as real homes to real people, as real as the village square, the parish hall, the Paris Tabac, or the alumni group then you’re underestimating the passion, loyalty, and deep personal relationship found there.
This lack of understanding and appreciation will almost always result in a tragic faux pas the likes of which may result in brand suicide, the likes of which can be easily avoided if you had just understood that the operative word of Virtual Online Community is community. And community, in this case, is synonymous with family.”
